Forecasting Problem Essays

Forecasting Problem Essays Forecasting Problem Essay Forecasting Problem Essay Forecasting Problem POM Software: For this part of the problem I need to use the POM software: 1. Forecasting. 2. I should select Module-gt;Forecasting-gt;File-gt;New-gt;Least Squares and multiple regression 3. Use the module to solve the Case Study (Southwestern University). this case study, I am are required to build a forecasting model. Assume a linear regression forecasting model and build a model for each of the five games (five models in total) by using the forecasting module of the POM software. 4. Answer the three discussion questions for the case study except the part requiring me to justify the forecasting technique, as linear regression would be used. Discussion Questions 1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other techniques, and project attendance through 2007. 2. What revenues are to be expected in 2006 and 2007 3. Discuss the schools options. Case Study (Southwestern University) Southwestern University (SWU), a large state college in Stephenville, Texas, enrolls close to 20,000 students. The school is a dominant force in the small city, with more students during fall and spring than permanent residents. Always a football powerhouse, SWU is usually in the top 20 in College football rankings. Since the legendary Bo Pitterno was hired as its head coach in 1999 (in hopes of reaching the elusive number 1 ranking),attendance at the five Saturday home games each year increased. Prior to Pitternos arrival, attendance generally averaged 25,000 to 29,000 per game. : Season ticket sales bumped up by 10,000 Just with the announcement of the new coachs arrival. Stephenville and SWU were ready to move to the big time! The immediate issue facing SWU, however, was not NCAA ranking. It was capacity. The existing SWU stadium, built in 1953, has seating for 54,000 fans. The following table indicates attendance at each game for the past 6 years. One of Pitternos demands upon joining SWU had been a stadium expansion, or possibly even a new stadium. With attendance increasing, SWU administrators began to face the issue head-on. Pitterno had wanted dormitories solely for his athletes in the stadium as an additional feature of any expansion. SWUs president, Dr. Joel Wisner, decided it was time for his vice president of development to forecast when the existing stadium would max out. The expansion was, in his mind, a given. But Wisner needed to know how long he could wait. He also sought a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $20 in 2006 and a 5% increase each year in future prices. Southwestern University Football Game Attendance, 2000-2005 2000 GAME ATTENDEESOPPONENT 1 34,200 Baylor 2 a 39,800 Texas 3 38,200 LSU 4b26,900 Arkansas 5 35,100 USC 2001 GAME ATTENDEES OPPONENT 136,100Oklahoma 2a40,200 Nebraska 339,100 UCLA 4b25,300 Nevada 536,200 Ohio State 2002 GAME ATTENDEES OPPONENT 135,900 TCU 2a46,500 Texas Tech 343,100 Alaska 4b27,900 Arizona 539,200 Rice 2003 GAME ATTENDEES OPPONENT 141,900 Arkansas 2a46,100 Missouri 343,900 Florida 4b30,100 Miami 540,500 Duke 2004 GAME ATTENDEES OPPONENT 142,500 Indiana 2a48,200 North Texas 344,200 Texas AM 4b33,900 Southern 547,800 Oklahoma 2005 GAME ATTENDEES OPPONENT 146,900 LSU 2a50,100 Texas 345,900 Prairie View AM 4b36,300 Montana 549,900 Arizona State (a) Refer to Homecoming games. (b) During the 4th week of each season, Stephenville hosted a hugely popular southwestern crafts festival. This event brought tens of thousands of tourists to the town, especially on weekends, and had an obvious negative impact on game attendance.